How can Multi-criteria Decision Analysis contribute to environmental policy making? A case study on macro-sustainability in Germany

When it comes to decision making in the field of environmental policy, there is still a lack of useful decision aid methods. This paper intends to show how multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) as an useful decision aid method could help to reduce inefficiencies in macro-related environmentaleconomic-social decision making. MCDA methods differ from conventional methods as they are taking into account a set of objectives and criteria, that can be conflictual, multidimensional, incommensurable and incomparable. The information contained in the criteria and concerning the effects of the decision can be uncertain as well as qualitative. As decisions in the field of environmental problems possess mostly the characteristics just mentioned, MCDA can be considered as a useful decision aid approach. The theoretical elaboration of multi-criteria methods has been improving during the last years, but there is a lack of practical examples, especially for macroeconomic decision problems. A research project, which was recently completed at the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, is used to demonstrate the usefulness of MCDA. MCDA has not yet been applied, but it could improve the results and their usage. Within the project different sustainability scenarios were designed, containing a set of different policy elements and measures to be implemented. The scenarios, their evaluation, as well as a consultation process with different social groups and experts and interdisciplinary in-depth case analysis were used to derive policy strategies. These strategies form the result of the project as well as the base for a possible multi-criteria analysis. The aim of the paper is (a) to show the improvements MCDA could have in macro-related environmental decision making with special emphasis to the project and (b) to give a first idea which method can therefore be appropriate.